📊 Full opportunity report: The United States: The High-Variance Bet on ThorstenMeyerAI.com — validation score, market gap, and execution plan.

TL;DR

The United States is adopting a deregulated, market-led approach to AI and social policy, emphasizing innovation over oversight. Local governments are experimenting with guaranteed income, while federal efforts aim to prevent regulation, creating a high-variance policy landscape.

The United States has embarked on a policy path that minimizes federal regulation of artificial intelligence, actively challenging state laws and emphasizing market-driven innovation. This approach, rooted in deregulation and a focus on private ownership, marks a significant departure from European and Nordic models, and it shapes the future of AI development and social safety nets in the country.

Since January 2025, the U.S. administration has revoked previous AI oversight policies and replaced them with a strategy aimed at maintaining American leadership through minimal regulation. In July 2025, the ‘AI Action Plan’ was introduced, emphasizing competitiveness and dominance over regulation. By December 2025, the White House established a Department of Justice task force to challenge state-level AI laws in court, and in March 2026, it formally requested Congress to preempt state AI regulations entirely. This federal stance contrasts sharply with the UK, which maintains a deliberately light regulatory framework. Meanwhile, local governments are independently experimenting with guaranteed income programs, such as Stockton’s $500-a-month pilot and Cook County’s permanent payments, filling the social safety net void left by federal minimalism. These city initiatives operate largely outside federal influence, reflecting a bottom-up response to economic and technological change.

The United States: The High-Variance Bet · Post-Labor Atlas Phase 2 · Day 6/12
Post-Labor Atlas · Phase 2 · Day 6 / 12 ThorstenMeyerAI.com · The Response
The Response · Day 6 · United States

The High-Variance Bet

The country building the disruption made the most distinctive choice of all: bet on the dynamism, regulate it least — even block others from regulating it — and tie the floor to work. The thinnest row on the map.

01 Signature — a federal void, filled from below
▲ Federal — clear the path
Revoked prior AI oversight EO (Jan 2025) “AI dominance” Action Plan (Jul 2025) DOJ task force vs state AI laws (Jan 2026) push to preempt state rules floor tied to work (EITC)
↕   the federal void   ↕
▲ Local — fill the void
150+ city guaranteed-income pilots Stockton SEED · $500/mo Cook County · $500/mo made permanent (2026) philanthropic + city-budget no federal scale
The response is underway — bottom-up and patchy — while the center deregulates and moves to block the states.
02 The US five-lever profile — the sparest on the map
Income floor
minimal
EITC is real but entirely work-gated — near-zero for childless adults. No UBI; guaranteed income only in local pilots.
Capital & ownership
minimal
No state fund or dividend — the bet is private markets (401ks, retail) + nascent “Trump accounts”; equity ownership is concentrated.
Work & time
minimal
The most flexible labour market in the rich world — at-will, no job guarantee, no short-time-work scheme.
Skills & transition
partial
Community colleges + federal workforce programs — fragmented and modestly funded.
Institutions
minimal
Actively deregulatory — moving to preempt even state AI laws. The most market-led stance on the map.
03 The wager, in numbers
~$660 vs $8,231
EITC max for a childless worker vs a worker with 3+ kids (2026) — the floor is generous for working families, near-zero for childless adults.
150+ cities
running guaranteed-income pilots (Cook County made $500/mo permanent, 2026) — the floor improvised locally, no federal program.
preempt the states
a DOJ AI Litigation Task Force (2026) + a push to bar state AI laws — Washington isn’t light-touch; it’s moving to prevent regulation.
Sources: IRS / Center on Budget & Policy Priorities & Tax Policy Center (EITC); Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, Cook County (pilots); White House EOs & National Policy Framework (federal AI posture) · figures indicative, mid-2026.
04 The Response Matrix — row 5 of 10
Jurisdiction
Income floor
Capital
Work & time
Skills
Institutions
European Union
strong*
minimal
strong
strong
strong
The Nordics
strong
partial
partial
strong
strong
United Kingdom
partial
minimal
partial
partial
partial
Canada
partial
minimal
partial
partial
minimal
United States
minimal
minimal
minimal
partial
minimal
The Gulf
·
·
·
·
·
Singapore
·
·
·
·
·
China
·
·
·
·
·
India
·
·
·
·
·
Brazil
·
·
·
·
·
solid = pulled hard · outline = partial · grey = barely used · the market-led pole: minimal almost everywhere — bet on the engine, not the airbag. Highest upside, thinnest backstop.

Independent commentary, produced with AI assistance under human editorial oversight. The views are the author’s own and may change. This is analysis, not policy, economic, investment, or legal advice. Descriptions of US federal AI executive actions, the EITC, “Trump accounts,” and municipal guaranteed-income pilots reflect publicly reported information as of mid-2026 and may change as litigation and legislation evolve. This phase maps differing approaches and endorses none; characterizations of contested policies present competing views, not a verdict, and references to specific administrations and programs are factual and analytical, not partisan. Country and program names are referenced for analysis and imply no affiliation.

ThorstenMeyerAI.com · Post-Labor Transition Atlas · Phase 2 · Day 6 of 12 · © 2026 Thorsten Meyer

Implications of Deregulation for Innovation and Inequality

The U.S. approach prioritizes rapid innovation and private ownership, betting that a deregulated environment will accelerate economic growth and technological leadership. However, this strategy risks widening social inequalities, as federal safety nets are minimal and local experiments remain limited in scale. The federal government’s active challenge to state laws underscores a deliberate choice to keep regulation low, potentially fostering a highly variable policy landscape that could influence global AI development and economic competitiveness for years to come.

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U.S. Policy Shift and Local Social Experiments

Historically, the U.S. has favored market-led growth, but recent developments mark a decisive shift toward deregulation, especially in AI. The federal government’s actions since early 2025, including revoking oversight policies and challenging state laws, aim to maintain American dominance in AI innovation. Concurrently, over 150 cities and counties are implementing guaranteed income pilots, such as Stockton and Cook County, to address economic displacement caused by technological change. These local initiatives operate independently of federal policy, creating a patchwork of social safety measures that reflect the country’s bottom-up response to the post-labor economy.

“Our goal is to ensure American leadership through innovation, not by imposing heavy-handed regulations that could hinder growth.”

— U.S. White House spokesperson

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Unclear Long-term Effects of Deregulation and Local Initiatives

It remains uncertain how sustainable and scalable these city-level social programs will be, and whether the federal government’s deregulatory stance will foster long-term technological leadership or exacerbate social inequalities. The impact of challenging state laws in court and preempting local regulations could lead to legal and political conflicts, with potential implications for innovation and social safety nets.

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Next Steps in Federal and Local Policy Developments

Federal efforts to preempt state AI laws are likely to continue, potentially resulting in court battles and legislative debates. Meanwhile, local governments may expand or refine guaranteed income programs, but their scale and impact remain limited without federal support. Monitoring these developments will be crucial to understanding whether the U.S. can sustain its market-led innovation model while addressing social disparities.

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Key Questions

Why is the U.S. intentionally deregulating AI?

The U.S. believes that minimal regulation will foster faster innovation and maintain its global leadership in AI technology, trusting market dynamism over government oversight.

How are local governments responding to the federal deregulation?

Many cities and counties are independently experimenting with guaranteed income programs to support displaced workers, filling the social safety net gap left by federal minimalism.

What are the risks of this deregulation strategy?

Potential risks include increased social inequality, legal conflicts over state vs. federal authority, and the possibility that innovation may benefit only certain segments of society.

Could this approach affect the global AI landscape?

Yes, if successful, the U.S. could set a precedent for deregulated AI development, influencing international policy and competition.

What is the long-term outlook for social safety nets in the U.S.?

Currently, safety nets are limited and fragmented, relying heavily on local initiatives. The federal government’s stance suggests they may remain insufficient unless broader reforms occur.

Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com

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